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JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP (JBLU)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered a modest operating profit with operating margin of 0.3% and adjusted operating margin of 1.3%; GAAP net loss narrowed to $74M ($0.21 per share) and non-GAAP adjusted loss to $58M ($0.16 per share), while revenue was $2.356B, down 3% year over year .
  • Results exceeded the better end of JetBlue’s revenue/unit-cost guidance ranges; unit revenue (RASM) declined 1.5% YoY versus guidance calling for down 3.5–7.5%, and CASM ex-fuel rose 6.0% YoY versus guidance of up 6.5–8.5% .
  • Guidance reset: JetBlue initiated 3Q guidance (ASMs -1.0% to +2.0%; RASM -6.0% to -2.0%; CASM ex-fuel +4–6%) and reinstated full-year CASM ex-fuel +5–7% despite lower capacity; FY capex trimmed to ~$1.2B (from ~$1.3B) .
  • Strategic catalyst: “Blue Sky” collaboration with United completed DOT review; expected to add $50M incremental EBIT to JetForward and turbocharge Paisly; early signs include accelerated premium card signups outside core markets .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong operations and reliability: completion factor 99.6% in Q2; on-time performance and completion improved YoY, driving cost savings and double-digit NPS increase .
  • Demand momentum shifted to close-in bookings: revenue within 14 days of travel up 7% YoY; peaks (Easter, Memorial Day) performed well; premium and transatlantic unit revenues increased (mid-single digits and low single digits, respectively) .
  • Strategic progress: Blue Sky collaboration finalized with DOT; expected $50M incremental EBIT and reciprocal loyalty earn/burn plus Paisly distribution for United; CEO: “we met or exceeded our financial targets, delivering a modest operating profit” .

What Went Wrong

  • Headwinds in trough periods and load factor: unit revenue down 1.5% YoY; load factor fell to 81.9% from 84.0% YoY; domestic troughs remained weak despite capacity sculpting .
  • Unit cost pressure: CASM ex-fuel up 6.0% YoY on maintenance and wages; Q3 CASM-ex outlook still pressured by July ATC/weather disruptions and wage step-up .
  • GAAP profitability still negative: net loss of $74M despite operational profit; interest expense elevated ($147M in Q2) and load factor decline constrained leverage .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Operating Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.428 $2.140 $2.356
Net Income ($USD Millions)$25 $(208) $(74)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.07 $(0.59) $(0.21)
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.08 $(0.59) $(0.16)
Operating Margin (%)2.3% (8.2)% 0.3%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)2.4% (8.2)% 1.3%
ASMs (Millions)16,887 15,608 16,634
RASM (cents)14.38 13.71 14.17
CASM ex-Fuel (cents)10.24 11.45 10.86
Load Factor (%)84.0% 80.7% 81.9%
Avg Fuel Price per Gallon ($)$2.87 $2.57 $2.40

Segment revenue breakdown:

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Passenger Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.265 $1.969 $2.179
Other Revenue ($USD Millions)$163 $171 $177

Selected KPIs:

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue Passengers (thousands)9,264 9,973
Average Fare ($)$212.58 $218.52
Fuel Gallons Consumed (millions)199 210
Average Operating Aircraft288 286
Departures74,753 78,809
Completion Factor (%)98.6% 99.6%

Estimate vs actual (Wall Street consensus; S&P Global):

MetricQ2 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.287*$2.356
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$151.7*$201
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.321)*$(0.16)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
ASMs YoYFY 2025Not reaffirmed (2.5%) – (0.5%) Initiated
CASM ex-Fuel YoYFY 2025Not reaffirmed 5.0% – 7.0% Reinstated
Interest ExpenseFY 2025~$600M ~$600M Maintained
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025~$1.3B ~$1.2B Lowered
Fuel Price per Gallon3Q 2025 vs 2Q 2025$2.25–$2.40 (2Q guide) $2.50–$2.65 (3Q guide) Raised
ASMs YoY3Q 2025N/A(1.0%) – 2.0% Initiated
RASM YoY3Q 2025N/A(6.0%) – (2.0%) Initiated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Q-2)Q1 2025 (Q-1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
Demand: peaks vs troughsStrong holiday peaks; positive adjusted margin; set expectation for FY positive margin Trough weakness; RASM within guide; significant capacity pulls; transatlantic strength Close-in demand strengthens; peaks strong; ATC/weather pressure in July; Q3 guide reflects improvement adjusted for transitory factors Improving peaks; troughs still weak
Close-in bookingsStrong Nov/Dec close-in Close-in demand weaker vs 4Q; exposure to macro Close-in bookings +7% YoY; momentum carried into July Improving
Blue Sky/partnershipsConsidering domestic partner; deferrals; JetForward momentum Expect partner announcement in Q2 DOT review completed; reciprocal loyalty/interline; $50M EBIT uplift Executed, ramping
Pratt & Whitney AOGMid-to-high teens AOG expected; ~3pt margin drag in 2025 11 AOG; compensation not booked; continued headwind AOG forecast improved to <10 average in 2025; resolve by end-2027; enables capital-light growth Improving tailwind in 2026–2027
Unit costs/CASM ex-fuelBeat cost guide; set CASM-ex trajectory CASM-ex +8.3% (beat); managing costs with capacity pulls CASM-ex +6.0% (beat); FY guide reinstated; asset sale gains benefit CASM-ex Moderating, execution strong
Premium/LoyaltyPremium & loyalty strong; 12% revenue from loyalty Premium RASM HSD vs core; premium card launched Premium unit revenue MSD; J.D. Power top rating; loyalty revenues MSD; lounges on track Accretive growth

Management Commentary

  • CEO Joanna Geraghty: “We ended the first half of 2025 with meaningful progress on JetForward… we met or exceeded our financial targets, delivering a modest operating profit for the quarter.”
  • President Marty St. George: “Close-in strength from the second quarter continue[d]… we are optimistic that demand will continue to improve through the end of the year.”
  • CFO Ursula Hurley: “As the demand environment improves, we remain laser-focused on cost execution. For the full year, we are re-instating our initial unit cost guidance… despite capacity one and a half points lower than initial guidance.”
  • CEO on Blue Sky: “Blue Sky will enable each airline to offer… access to hundreds of new flights… [and] transition [United’s] non-flight ancillaries to Paisly – turbocharging Paisly’s high-margin growth.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital-light growth from improving AOG: management expects low-single-digit capacity growth from 2026 through decade-end as AOGs fall and fleet actions (E190 exit, XLR sales, A320 restyle pause) optimize balance sheet and costs .
  • Paisly economics: EBIT margin ~50% and trending toward ~60%; United will white-label non-air ancillaries via Paisly, adding “nine digits of leads” and sharing commissions (terms undisclosed) .
  • Asset sale gains and CASM-ex bridge: Q2 had ~0.5pt CASM-ex benefit from asset sales; Q3 ~2pts; FY ~1.25pts; transactions include E190 sales, engine sale-leasebacks, and XLR dispositions .
  • Premium competitive landscape: JetBlue sees no impact from ULCC “premium” products; domestic first-class launching in 2026 to further expand premium offering .
  • Revenue forecasting: demand recovery remains choppy; management avoids 4Q guide due to close-in booking dynamics and industry capacity uncertainty .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025: JetBlue beat consensus across revenue, EBITDA, and EPS; revenue $2.356B vs $2.287B*, EBITDA $201M vs $151.7M*, EPS $(0.16) vs $(0.321)* .
  • Current Q3 2025 consensus: Revenue $2.322B*, EBITDA $105.3M*, EPS $(0.420)*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
MetricQ3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.322*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$105.3*
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.420)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Operational reliability and close-in demand drove a better-than-guided Q2; watch for continued peak strength and the normalization of ATC/weather impacts embedded in Q3 guidance .
  • Cost execution remains a differentiator: seventh consecutive cost beat, FY CASM-ex guidance reinstated despite lower capacity; asset sale gains provide incremental CASM-ex relief through 2H .
  • Blue Sky is a near- and medium-term catalyst: reciprocal loyalty, interline distribution, Paisly scale, and $50M incremental EBIT added to JetForward; initial traction evident in premium card signups outside core geographies .
  • AOG trajectory is improving; management now expects <10 average AOGs in 2025, falling further in 2026 and fully resolved by end-2027, enabling capital-light growth and a more favorable unit-cost profile .
  • Premium/leisure orientation continues to outperform: premium unit revenue up mid-single digits, transatlantic resilient; domestic first-class in 2026 and lounges (JFK 4Q25, BOS 2026) should support mix and loyalty economics .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity ample: $3.4B liquidity (ex revolver) at Q2-end commentary; FY capex lowered to ~$1.2B and interest expense at ~$600M; monitoring cash preservation via fleet actions and cost programs .
  • Near-term trading setup: Q3 RASM guide implies sequential improvement after adjusting for one-offs; watch ATC/weather normalization, asset sale gains, and close-in booking momentum as key drivers .